S1/E19: Disputed Islands: External Threat, Internal Unity?

Iran's Gambit

Iran and United Arab Emirates both claim sovereignty over the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands. This conflict predates the Islamic Republic, with Shah Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi ordering the Imperial Navy in 1971 to assert Iranian sovereignty over the islands. The dispute has simmered since then and resurfaces regularly.

A fresh episode occurred a few days ago when the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held their first summit, themed “Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity.” The October 16 summit produced a Joint Statement that devoted an entire section to Iran. The statement emphasizes “the importance of diplomatic engagement with Iran to pursue regional de-escalation” and stresses “the importance of ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, ending the proliferation of ballistic missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and any technologies that threaten regional security.” This refers primarily to Iran’s arms exports to Russia, though it may also encompass Iran’s arming of proxies. However, the section that sparked reactions in Iran was Section 46, which calls on Iran to “end its occupation of the three islands of the UAE—Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa—which constitutes a violation of the UAE’s sovereignty and the principles of the U.N. Charter.”

This is not the first time outside powers have sided with the UAE in the island dispute. Even China, sometimes considered a tactical ally of Iran, has supported the UAE’s claims, as has Russia. In today's program, explore Iran’s reaction to the joint statement and how the issue is likely to influence Iranian politics.