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The So What from BCG

1
Re-Recruiting and Other New HR Strategies You Can’t Ignore 18:09

21 dagen geleden18:09

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18:09

HR is no longer just about managing people—it’s about shaping the future of work. Jens Baier, BCG’s HR transformation expert, discusses how AI and shifting employee expectations are forcing companies to rethink talent strategies. From re-recruiting to upskilling employees, HR must adapt to a rapidly changing landscape. Learn More: Jens Baier: https://on.bcg.com/41ca7Gv BCG on People Strategy: https://on.bcg.com/3QtAjro Decoding Global Talent: https://on.bcg.com/4gUC4IT…

Iran's Gambit

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"Iran's Gambit" is a weekly podcast produced by Ali Alfoneh, on Iranian politics, and Iran's national security strategy, intentions, capabilities and impact.

71 afleveringen

#Politics #News #Iran #Ali Alfoneh

Iran's Gambit

updated 4 dagen geleden

Thuis series•Feed

"Iran's Gambit" is a weekly podcast produced by Ali Alfoneh, on Iranian politics, and Iran's national security strategy, intentions, capabilities and impact.

71 afleveringen

#Politics #News #Iran #Ali Alfoneh

כל הפרקים

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E71: Iran's Other Problems: Seismic Vulnerability, Energy and Water Crises 18:51

4 dagen geleden18:51

18:51

Iran faces escalating environmental and infrastructural crises, exposing governance deficiencies. Tehran’s seismic vulnerability is critical, with accumulated tectonic stress indicating a high-probability magnitude 7+ earthquake. Rapid urbanization and inadequate disaster preparedness put millions at risk. Simultaneously, Iran’s energy crisis worsens as demand outpaces supply. Dr. Hashem Oraee highlights policy mismanagement, with heavy subsidies fueling excessive consumption. Prioritizing residential energy over industrial needs has led to economic stagnation, inflation, and public sector shutdowns. Iran’s water crisis compounds these challenges. Over-extraction, reduced precipitation, and groundwater depletion have pushed the country into hydrological emergency, leading to land subsidence. With 90% of water allocated to agriculture, shortages threaten national stability.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E70: Trump's Letter & Preconditions For Negotiations 17:09

5 dagen geleden17:09

17:09

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E69: Khamenei's Distrust of Trump 24:41

6 dagen geleden24:41

24:41

On the same day that former Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Mohammed Gargash visited Tehran, purportedly to deliver an official communique from President Donald J. Trump to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei categorically dismissed the prospect of diplomatic negotiations with the United States.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E68: To Negotiate Or Not To Negotiate? 18:26

9 dagen geleden18:26

18:26

On March 7, during an interview with Fox Business , President Donald J. Trump asserted that he had dispatched a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating: "I hope you're going to negotiate because it's going to be a lot better for Iran... If we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them... The other alternative is we have to do something, because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon." Later that day, while addressing the press from the Oval Office, the president reaffirmed : "We're down to final strokes with Iran,... We can't let them have a nuclear weapon." The president's latest declarations have elicited divergent reactions from the Islamic Republic, reflecting both internal factionalism within the ruling elite regarding strategic engagement with the United States and a lack of bureaucratic cohesion.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E67: Russian Mediation Offer a Nonstarter 15:13

12 dagen geleden15:13

15:13

Today’s discussion is dedicated to Iran-Russia relations, with a particular focus on Moscow’s diplomatic overture to facilitate U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to broker nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic. First, I will analyze the strategic implications of Russia’s proposal, which was initially reported by Bloomberg News on March 4. Then, I will examine the reactions of Iranian political analysts to this development, assessing their perspectives within the broader context of Iran’s foreign policy and regional security dynamics.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E66: Pezeshkian Blames Khamenei For Lack of Negotiations With the U.S. 18:51

16 dagen geleden18:51

18:51

On March 2, a parliamentary majority impeached Dr. Abdulnaser Hemmati, minister of economy. Defending Hemmati, President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized to parliamentarians that Iran's economic problems will not be solved with the impeachment, and pointed at a different solution: Negotiations with the United States, in the hope of achieving sanction relief. However, he also added that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not allowing such negotiations. In other words, Pezeshkian is directly accusing Khamenei for the hardships Iranians suffer under the U.S. sanctions regime. But today's program begins elsewhere, a conversation with Professor Sadeq Zibakalam of Tehran University, who discusses his understanding of what President Donald J. Trump's real agenda and what he wants from Iran. Next, we will look at the statements from the director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization with regards to ongoing developments in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and finally, Ayatollah Khamenei's latest statements on the United States and President Pezeshkian's defense of former Economy Minister Hemmati.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E65: No Direct Talks with the U.S. as Long as Maximum Pressure Persists 16:11

21 dagen geleden16:11

16:11

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has recently conveyed contradictory signals regarding the prospect of direct diplomatic engagement with the United States. On January 28, his remarks suggested openness to such negotiations, whereas on February 7, he appeared to reject the possibility. Officials within the Islamic Republic have subsequently interpreted Khamenei’s statements through the lens of their respective institutional interests. In the latest demonstration of bureaucratic politics, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, stipulated "talks between Iran and the United States are not feasible as long as the maximum pressure campaign remains in effect." This negates Khamenei's February 7 statement. Meanwhile, former President Hassan Rouhani contended that Khamenei’s opposition to direct negotiations is not absolute. Conversely, media outlets aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) underscore that Iran should not anticipate sanctions relief from the United States. Despite these divergent perspectives, there is a broad consensus among analysts that Russia is unlikely to serve as a mediator between Tehran and Washington.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E64: Khamenei Nixes U.S. Negotiations, Rumors of Pezeshkian’s Resignation 23:28

5 weeks geleden23:28

23:28

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has once again recalibrated his strategic posture concerning diplomatic engagement with the United States. In his January 28 address , he appeared to tacitly endorse diplomatic negotiations with Washington. However, on February 7, Khamenei asserted that engaging in negotiations with President Donald J. Trump’s administration is “neither wise and intelligent, nor is it honorable.” The rationale behind this apparent policy shift remains unclear, though some Iranian analysts speculate it may be a reaction to the presidential memorandum recently signed by President Donald J. Trump. Khamenei’s statements have also fueled speculation regarding President Masoud Pezeshkian’s purported threats to resign, in protest to Khamenei’s opposition to negotiations. The statements have also reignited a contentious discourse in which both proponents and detractors of diplomatic engagement with the United States selectively interpret Khamenei’s remarks to advance their respective political narratives.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E63: Collective Leadership in the Face of Internal and External Threats? 17:03

6 weeks geleden17:03

17:03

The Islamic Republic operated under a system of collective leadership throughout the 1980s. At the time, this governance structure remained largely unrecognized by external observers, but those with insight into Iran’s political dynamics understood that supreme authority did not rest solely with Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Instead, the Islamic Republic’s decision-making and policy implementation were effectively managed by a quadrumvirate comprising key institutional figures: the head of the legislative branch, Parliamentary Speaker Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; the head of the executive branch, President Ali Khamenei; and the head of the judiciary, Mr. Abdol-Karim Mousavi Ardabili. The fourth figure in this arrangement was Mr. Ahmad Khomeini, son of the Grand Ayatollah, who wielded significant procedural power by controlling access to his father’s seal, thereby formalizing state decrees in his father’s name. This oligarchic configuration not only ensured the continuity of state functions but also reinforced regime legitimacy and facilitated the enforcement of policy decisions. I perceive that the Islamic Republic is once again reverting to a form of collective leadership. While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may not be physically incapacitated, he appears increasingly insulated from both internal political realities and the broader geopolitical landscape. The heads of the three branches of government, cognizant of Khamenei’s evolving role, seem to be consolidating authority in response to both domestic instability and external strategic pressures. This emergent political arrangement suggests a recalibration of power within the regime, potentially signaling a return to coordinated elite decision-making as a mechanism for regime preservation. Should the Revolutionary Guard cooperate with the heads of three branches of the government, they regime may significantly improve its chances of survival. However, should Ayatollah Khamenei, feel left out by the president, the parliamentary speaker and the judiciary chief, he may use the Revolutionary Guard to counter balance the civilians and thereby undermine the regime.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E62: Renewed Trump Optimism in Tehran 17:45

6 weeks geleden17:45

17:45

As Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lays the groundwork for a new round of nuclear negotiations with the United States, and Ali Larijani, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a willingness to offer nuclear-related concessions in exchange for sanctions relief, Iranian political analysts view President Donald J. Trump’s psychology and Republican dominance across the executive and legislative branches as strategic levers to circumvent opposition from U.S. allies critical of Iran and to secure a durable bilateral agreement with Washington.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E61: Khamenei Greenlights Iran-U.S. Talks, Will Trump? 15:34

7 weeks geleden15:34

15:34

Today's program discusses renewed speculations about direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington, and as before, the two capitals appear out of sync: historically, when Washington was ready to negotiate with Iran, formidable impediments, primarily Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prevented Tehran to take part in negotiations. Now that Tehran appears most interested, if not desperate for negotiations, President Donald J. Trump is possibly playing hard to get. Framing his authorization within his characteristic anti-imperialist rhetoric, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has officially sanctioned direct diplomatic engagement between the Islamic Republic and the United States. However, Washington appears unresponsive, as inferred from statements by Iranian officials and domestic media discourse.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E60: Consequences of a Potential Withdrawal of U.S. Forces From Syria 10:20

8 weeks geleden10:20

10:20

Officially, the United States has maintained a military presence in Syria since September 2014. As of December, approximately 900 U.S. troops reportedly remain in Syria - a number which according to the latest reports may be closer to 2000. This military posture could face a rapid reconfiguration with President-elect Donald J. Trump’s impending return to the White House, given his predisposition toward minimizing direct U.S. involvement in foreign military operations. While such a withdrawal is likely to erode U.S. leverage over the emerging governance structure in Syria, it may not significantly shift the strategic balance of power in Syria and the broader Middle East in a way that would generate a power vacuum conducive to exploitation by U.S. adversaries, including anti-American terrorist organizations or the Islamic Republic of Iran.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E59: Leadership Succession & Negotiation with the U.S. 25:43

9 weeks geleden25:43

25:43

There is renewed speculation about Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as the leader of the revolution and Iran's head of state. Separatelly, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are engaged in poorly coordinated attempts to reach out to President-Elect Donald J. Trump to prepare the ground for negotiations with the United States. I am not entirely sure the president and the foreign minister are communicating the same signal, let alone the regime in its entirety, including the Revolutionary Guard and Ayatollah Khamenei. The Islamic Republic really needs to coordinate better. Still better, Ayatollah Khamenei himself must communicate with the president-elect.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E58: Mashayekhi on Maladministration 27:42

9 weeks geleden27:42

27:42

The central government in Iran, whether under the Pahlavi regime or the Islamic Republic, has historically provided institutionalized spaces for experts to engage in debates on technical—and occasionally political—issues aligned with state interests. These platforms, often manifesting as think tanks, policy research centers, and other quasi-official institutions, fulfill several critical functions: First, they channel dissent by allowing critics of government policies to articulate their objections within controlled environments, thus preventing such dissent from escalating into mass mobilizations or street protests against the regime. Second, they serve as a mechanism for the state to gauge the prevailing intellectual currents among elite circles, potentially co-opting and incorporating ideas that align with state priorities. Third, these fora can act as a tool for the regime to coopt members of oppositional elites by integrating them into the bureaucratic or executive apparatus. With the advent of the internet, both opposition groups and the regime have utilized digital spaces to establish new platforms for discourse. Alongside entertainment content such as cooking shows, pet videos, and pornography, these digital spaces occasionally host serious and substantive debates. Notably, the Islamic Republic has refrained from censoring these discussions, likely because entertainment content overwhelmingly dominates viewer attention. From a political strategy standpoint, this ensures that the regime can extract value from these debates without risking significant political activation or mobilization among the broader Iranian public. A pertinent example is the January 11 debate between Dr. Ali-Naqi Mashayekhi, Professor Emeritus at Sharif Institute of Technology (often referred to as Iran’s MIT), who holds a Ph.D. in management, and Seyyed Ehsan Khandouzi from Allameh Tabatabaei University. The two scholars engaged in a critical discussion on the structural and institutional factors underlying the stagnation of Iran’s development, with a particular focus on economic development.…

Iran's Gambit

1
S1/E57: IRGC Commander on Assad's Ineptitude and Putin's Treachery 39:22

10 weeks geleden39:22

39:22

Commander Behrouz Esbati, the Public Affairs Director of the Joint Force Cyber Command, on January 7 centered his speech on his firsthand observations of the systemic collapse of the Assad regime. Approximately one hour of his speech was published by Tabnak News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Dr. Mohsen Rezaei, the longest-serving Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Commander Esbati's remarks can be categorized into two distinct sections. The first section presents an Iranian perspective on the progressive disintegration of the Syrian regime, including the erosion of military morale and widespread demoralization among the Syrian populace. This portion of his analysis appears to be both credible and candid. The second section, however, where Commander Esbati projects the future trajectory of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' is imbued with ideological rhetoric and serves more as propaganda. I have chosen to place limited emphasis on this part of his discourse.…

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