Market Savera - 02/ 01/ 25

Stock Market Updates

Daily Morning Commentary

Indian markets likely to open lower on weak global cues, though recovery possible due to short covering.

Most Asian markets are subdued in their first session of 2025. Major financial markets in the US and around the globe were closed for New Year celebrations on the 1st January.

Back home, December month’s gross GST inflows, for transactions undertaken in November, were a tad under ₹1.77 lakh crore, hitting a three-month low and reflecting 7.3% growth in comparison to the same month in 2023. Net receipts stood at ₹1,54,366 crore in December. Moderation in net collections’ growth vis-à-vis gross receipts, can be explained by a 45.3% uptick in refunds to taxpayers, which touched ₹22,490 crore. Domestic refunds were up 31% in December, and refunds to exporters were up 64.5%.

Fertilizer stocks rallied as the Union Cabinet extended a one-time package to subsidise key fertiliser DAP at the cost of up to Rs 3,850 crore and approved a one-year extension of two crop insurance schemes.

Foreigners have been net sellers for the 12th straight session – as they offloaded stocks worth Rs 1782 crore, while the DIIs bought stocks worth Rs 1690 crore.

Market has potential to recover on short covering. Short term trend turned favourable as the Nifty closed above its 5-day EMA for the first time since December 16th. FII positioning in index futures is approaching oversold region, suggesting a possibility of a short covering in the days to come. The hourly charts confirmed a bullish reversal pattern with higher tops and higher bottoms.

Nifty faces immediate resistance at 23,938, while support moves higher to 23562.