The Griff Report - Pro Football Picks 11-28, 11-29, 12-1

The Griff Report

Turkey Day thru Sunday NFL Picks

The Lions playing the best I’ve ever seen them in my lifetime as of late. The Bears look to have their bread basket open for a thorough beating but a Quick Look at the head to head in this matchup tells me not so fast. Last year it appears as though the Bears at least had a gameplay last year, with the question being how much of that was Justin Fields? I see the consensus loaded up on the Lions as it has been pretty much every game this year. Knowing the Lions are capable of the blowout is one way of looking at this, but this is Chicago’s third division game in a row, the first two went straight down hill, well they may have covered but that looked really lucky. Therefore it is with great hesitation that I fade consensus and take the points here.

305 Bears +10

Dallas vs NY Giants and as bad as things have been Cooper Rush still has a winning record against everyone not named the Eagles. I’ve been wrong every time I picked Dallas this year but the reign of this matchup has been historically lopsided Dallas made the Daniel Jones era look like a giant mistake. There is still a game here and with the Cowboys having an outside shot at a wildcard, maybe in dream world at least, I still have to say they have had their way with the Giants so is Devito the answer for big blue? I don’t know but there is a still a game and Dallas hasn’t been very good on Turkey Day but I’ll take Dallas over NYG here.

308 Cowboys -3.5ç

The likely best game of the day on Thursday features two coaches who worked together under Shanahan in Atlanta and Washington, with McDaniels becoming the 49ers OC. What can be expected is the very thing that makes these offenses very difficult to read pre snap as in the amount of motion as Lafleur calls it ,”the Illusion of complexity” giving nightmares to defenses. Last week the Dolphins used motion on 93.7 percent of their plays beating the Patriots. This is both teams running very similar offenses. The complexity is off that pre snap motion both teams use the pass to the running backs at a very high rate. While the 49ers were maybe the leagues most injury riddled team of the season, the Dolphins had their injuries early and have hit a win streak with Tua playing at an All Pro rate since his return in week 8, they even had their chances in Buffalo but just couldn’t finish the job. This is going be a very entertaining game to watch. Consensus at least for now resides strictly with Lafleur and the Pack 75% of the 175k on the Packers -3, and 91% of the 26k on -175 Packers money line. There is always the weather to worry about this time of year in Wisconsin and with a 60/40 split towards over 47 I’m going to say that is a very well set total number and leave the total alone. These two haven’t met since A Rod was QB in 2022 so this is truly a new matchup. I anticipate at some point someone will feel the same way and take the Dolphins but its really hard as Green Bay is a contender along with Detroit and Philly in the NFC and the Dolphins even with a win a still yet to win in the playoffs. They have won 3 in a row and the spread does give a little room for them to lose 24-23, with the difference being can the Dolphins put together a game winning drive even on the road in November? If they can’t win this game then really is their any point in putting them as having a shot vs. KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or anyone else they might get in the playoffs should they make that jump? I’ll take the points here just to take the points but if they are going to keep this unit in Miami they’ve got to beat someone at some point. Liked it better at 3.5 but it looks like 3.

309 Dolphins +3

Raiders vs. Chiefs – Well why did they keep Antonio Pierce for another year? Well with pretty much this roster he was able to deliver a Christmas Day Miracle for Silver and Black last year as they beat the Chiefs, frustration from Kelce. However they just met in October and it was a 27-20 victory for the Chiefs. With Buffalo on their heels and owning a tie breaker I don’t expect the Chiefs to overlook the Raiders at all. The question is then when is it really just too many points? At 12.5 thats a lot of points and to that I’ll say it’s about a 60% chance the Raiders keep it within the number because the last 10 meetings only 4 would the Chiefs have covered. That being said the Raiders are on a losing streak and is that really where you want to put your hard earned dollars? I would pass on this game but somehow I have always managed a place in my heart for the Raiders which has led me to watch more Chiefs games so I’ll just say this and its a fact the Chiefs are the better team going for the league first 3 peat this year, so their goal has to be get the win without suffering major injuries. Consensus clearly on the Chiefs here, but with 77% of 67k this game is clearly not as attractive the betters as Thanksgiving is. I can’t honestly go with the Raiders here because they have been that bad this year. Their number on the board just like my sons birthday 3-14.

314 Chiefs-12½

On to Sunday where things are going to be hard as they have been all year for the Bengals. How many would have said Burrow leads the league in passing, Chase in receiving and the Bengals are at 4-7. Remember how the were just out of sorts early in the year with the contract thing and it really looked like they were in preseason mode still. This offense couldn’t have played two better games and still lost to Baltimore. The Steelers are back to being a powerhouse and still this is the main challenge in the Bengals remaining schedule… beat the Steelers twice, Dallas with a backup QB, then the Titans, Browns and Broncos and you finish coming back from the bye week at 10-7 meaning they would be the hottest team in the league heading into the playoffs. They will surely be favored in at least five of those games barring injury with the finale at Pittsburgh maybe even or them as a slight dog depending on where the division is because if they clinched and can’t advance in the seeding Pittsburgh may be resting players that day. Thats looking ahead but right now Burrow and Chase have done a lot of shit talking about the Bengals being the best in the AFC, they let the Ravens off the hook twice and the Chiefs came back as well so those two have to keep leading by example and the rest of the Bengals have to hold each other accountable and step up. Hopefully they have throughly prepared for the Steelers as they had the bye week. I slide over to the money line even though it’s only -2.5 but this is a very good Steelers team that lines up against them this Sunday. Burrow 3-2 vs Pittsburgh in his starts vs. the Steelers.

466 Bengals -150

Eagles have hit their stride heading into a tough matchup at Baltimore. I think the Eagles end up facing Detroit this year to decide the NFC. Baltimore has had some defensive issues at times this year and the Eagles defensive whoa’s from a season ago appear to have been rectified. Give me the +3 or the money line +122 if your feeling strong, as for me its the eye test and consensus can go where it goes. I’ll take the Eagles.

479 Eagles +3

I look at is the home field advantage still alive in New England? I’ll take the Pats with the points against the dome team coming in favored to play in whatever weather happens in Foxboro Sunday

468 Patriots +3

As always best of luck and enjoy your football week