2024 Election Preview: Markets, Volatility, and Investment Strategies (Ep. 111)

Retirement Plan Playbook

Hosts Brent, Matthew, and Josh introduce the show, focusing on investment strategies, retirement planning, and current events. They discuss the importance of adaptability in volatile times, especially during political and economic uncertainty.

[00:01:00] - Social Media and Distractions

- The team discusses the distractions of social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok, highlighting how modern social media can clutter your life and be a source of misinformation.

[00:03:30] - Political Events and Market Volatility

- Discussion about the recent dock strike, unrest in the Middle East, and how these geopolitical events spooked the market.

- Impact on oil prices and how the market reacts to major global events.

[00:07:00] - Election Talk: Trump vs. Harris

- The team dives into the upcoming election, debating whether the election results will have significant effects on the market.

- Mention of Vegas odds favoring Trump by 3%, followed by speculation on how political changes could impact future market performance.

[00:10:30] - Does Politics Really Affect the Market?

- Brent and Matthew share historical data on how the market performs under Democratic versus Republican presidencies.

- Key stat: Staying invested through different political regimes yields better long-term results than trying to time the market based on elections.

[00:14:00] - How Presidents Impact Market Performance

- Analysis of market performance under different presidents, including Bush, Obama, Clinton, and Reagan.

- Discussion on how long it takes for presidential policies to affect the market and how much control a president really has over economic outcomes.

[00:19:00] - Volatility Before and After Elections

- The hosts discuss how volatility spikes before elections, especially in September and October, and how markets tend to calm down after elections through Inauguration Day.

[00:21:00] - Diversification and Safe Haven Assets

- The team stresses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio during times of uncertainty, with safe haven assets like gold and treasury bonds being key components.

- Matthew's take on investing in gold, and whether physical gold or gold ETFs are better options.

[00:26:00] - Thematic and Political ETFs

- The hosts introduce the concept of political and thematic ETFs, where you can invest in companies based on states or political ideologies, like the Texas-only ETF.

- Insight into how political themes can influence stock performance and fund creation.

[00:30:00] - Election Investment Strategies

- Josh shares practical strategies for navigating election-related uncertainty, such as staying diversified, investing in safe havens, and adjusting portfolio allocations as needed.

[00:33:00] - Betting on States: Texas vs. California

- Fun debate on which states would be better for long-term investment, particularly with many companies leaving California for Texas.

[00:35:00] - The Role of Behavioral Investing

- The team discusses how investing behaviorally, with moves like allocating 5-10% of portfolios into gold or state-based funds, can psychologically relieve concerns during election periods.

[00:36:00] - Wrapping Up: Diversification is Key

- Final thoughts on the importance of staying invested and diversified through elections, global crises, and market volatility.

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