Evan Silva’s Matchups: Steelers at Browns

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Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Steelers 20, Browns 16.5

Steelers-Browns is Week 12’s lowest-totaled affair and a game to fade where sensible in fantasy-lineup decisions. … Cleveland’s defense has shown enough vulnerability to deep passes for two-QB-leaguers to stand by deep-ball aficionado Russell Wilson; the Browns have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (36). … In Week 11’s neutral-script bout with Baltimore, Najee Harris out-snapped Jaylen Warren 44 to 26 and out-touched Warren 22 to 13. The Browns are holding enemy backs to the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points. Harris is a volume-driven RB2. Warren is a justifiable flex option who’s especially attractive in single-game DFS.

Russ’ 2024 target distribution: George Pickens 33; Calvin Austin 16; Warren and Darnell Washington 12; Van Jefferson 11; Harris and Pat Freiermuth 10; Mike Williams 1. … Pickens’ receiving lines through four Wilson starts are 5/111/1, 4/74/0, 5/91/1, and 8/89/0. Pickens is easily Pittsburgh’s most dangerous weapon on downfield throws, where Cleveland’s secondary is most vulnerable. It doesn’t hurt that Browns CBs Denzel Ward (rib/ankle) and Greg Newsome (shoulder) are banged up. … Austin offers 4.32 speed and theoretical big-play potential but has caught just seven of 16 targets from Wilson and logged a season-low 33% snap rate in last week’s victory. … Blocking tight end Washington is out-targeting Freiermuth with Wilson under center. Both are touchdown-or-bust options usable only on one-game DFS slates. … Williams ran seven routes in his Steelers debut, then 15 in last week’s win. He was not targeted against the Ravens. This is a plus draw for Williams’ skill set on paper, but it’s fair to doubt how much further his role can grow on a short week.

This is a worrisome spot for Jameis Winston facing an elite Steelers pass defense yielding the NFL’s third-lowest completion rate (61%) and second-lowest QB rating (77). Winston’s blindside protection is in danger against Pittsburgh’s vicious outside rush with LT Dawand Jones (broken leg) lost to I.R. and disappointing Jedrick Wills (knee) limited in practice. The Steelers’ D/ST is a confident play. … Jerome Ford out-snapped Nick Chubb by a 41-to-22 margin in Week 11’s loss to New Orleans due to negative script; the Saints pounded the Browns 35-14. Through four 2024 appearances, Chubb carries a subpar 53/163/1 (3.1 YPC) rushing line with only two catches. I’m not sure we’re going to reach a point in the season where Chubb becomes a confident RB2 play. I think he will need touchdowns to matter.

Winston’s 2024 target distribution: Jerry Jeudy 34; Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore 30; David Njoku 26; Ford 7; Chubb 3. … Coming off his best game in literal years, Jeudy leads the Browns in targets, yards (312), and first-down conversions (14) on Winston’s throws on the season. The Steelers’ physical backend will pose matchup problems for Jeudy, but he’s earned WR4/flex consideration in a week with six teams on bye. … Tillman’s Week 11 box-score production underwhelmed, but he drew eight targets while leading all Browns pass catchers in snaps played and routes run. I’m still approaching Tillman as a WR3/flex start. … Moore’s target counts in Jameis’ four starts are 6, 12, 9, and 8. He’s WR4/flex material in this projected low-scoring slugfest. … Njoku is averaging 8.8 targets in his last five games.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Browns 16