How Ben Bernanke can bring Superforecasting to the Bank of England w/ Nicholas Gruen - EP207

Economics Explored

Host Gene Tunny chats with Dr. Nicholas Gruen about economic forecasting and what recommendations former US Fed Chair Ben Bernanke could make in his current review of forecasting at the Bank of England. Nicholas, the CEO of Lateral Economics, discusses the shortcomings of economic forecasting and shares his insights into how it can be improved. The conversation was inspired by Nicholas's article in the Financial Times titled "How to Improve Economic Forecasting." The episode is split into two parts, with the second part focusing on the feedback Nicholas received on his article.

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About this episode’s guest: Nicholas Gruen

Described by the Financial Times’ Chief Economic Writer Martin Wolf as “a brilliant man who deserves to be better known”, and by former Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner as “Australia’s foremost public intellectual”, Dr Nicholas Gruen is a policy economist, entrepreneur and commentator on our economy, society and innovation.

What’s covered in EP207

• [00:02:13] Ben Bernanke’s review of economic forecasting at the Bank of England. [00:05:23] Hedgehogs and foxes.
• [00:09:36] Long-term issues with economic forecasting.
• [00:13:18] Improving economic forecasting techniques.
• [00:19:29] Forecasting accuracy.
• [00:24:30] Open sourcing economic forecasting.
• [00:26:29] Developing a forecasting market.
• [00:34:21] Tetlockian forecasting tournaments.
• [00:48:37] Wind in the Willows author Kenneth Grahame at the Bank of England.

Links relevant to the conversation

Video versions of the conversations featured in this episode on Nicholas’s YouTube channel:

https://youtu.be/uJNU8z9148w?si=lk4jfQMWkVx1__Le

https://youtu.be/KflFvpeC3iI?si=sFOaNruFTMet802j

Information on the Bank of England’s Citizens’ Panels/Forums:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/get-involved/citizens-panels

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/get-involved/citizens-panels/the-uk-economy-insights-from-the-bank-of-englands-citizens-panels

Mandarin column in which Nicholas declares former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane was “my favourite public servant in all the world”:

https://www.themandarin.com.au/87423-now-time-complacency-rba-vs-bank-england-edition/

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.