Everyone is Waiting for Fed Day — Nick Santiago 9-20-23 #527

Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. Today is Fed day. Later at 2pm EST the FOMC will announce its interest rate policy for the United States. They are expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50%. Once again, verbiage will be important and can move markets.
2. Bond yields are backing off this morning and that is certainly helping the major stock indexes. Yields have been steadily rising and that is ultimately problematic for the Fed. Today, the 10-year note yield is at 4.33%, down 3 basis points. The more important 2-year yield is at 5.06%, down 5 basis points. Remember, should the 2-year yield start to climb back up into the fed funds rate the fed will have a major problem. At the moment, the fed has some wiggle room and can pause.
3. Oil is down ticking a little today after surging to $93.74 a barrel yesterday. High oil prices are a direct tax on the consumer so this must be watched closely.
Natural gas is pulling back as well after having a couple of strong sessions.
4. Gold will likely be in play after the FOMC announcement. If the fed sounds dovish, gold should act well. On the other hand, if the fed sounds hawkish and the market believes the fed then gold will likely pullback. One thing is for sure, it will be a mover after the announcement.
5. Bitcoin is flat on the flatish side today. The daily chart has had some bounces recently, but the weekly chart is bearish.
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