0 DTE Options to Blame for Selloff? | 2024 Targets for S&P 500 Index | Fed Dot Plots Always Wrong?

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss how people are blaming the Wed 1.5% selloff on 0 DTE options while the CBOE says not so fast as dealers may have been buying stocks during the drawdown thus stabilizing markets. Later they talk shipping container rates spiking higher due to issues in the Suez Canal and Red Sea. Is this a fly in the ointment for inflation? Then they talk about how analysts making 2024 S&P 500 Index price and earnings estimates must get the forward 2025 earnings estimate right and what multiple the market will be trading at. What about oil in 2024? Analysts seem to be bearish, but Jay and Derek look at potential for refilling the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve). Finally, they talk VIX and VVIX and note how compressed the daily changes have been and what if anything that means going forward.

0 DTE Options (or ZERO Days to Expiration Options) are blamed for midweek selloff.

Why the CBOE says 0 DTE options are not to blame and instead dealers were buying stocks.

How market makers were a stabilizing force during the selloff rather than adding to selloff

Are they getting wrong the impact of 0 DTE options?

Why calls for Volmageddon 2.0 might be missing what caused Volmageddon 1.0

S&P 500 Index targets for 2024 vary quite a bit

Why is it so hard to nail next years S&P 500 Index targets because you really need 2025 EPS.

How analysts could have the same earnings targets but different multiple expectations

Shipping container rates spiked due to the issues in the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal

Below the surface inflation pressure and remembering how container rates foretold inflation

SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels and whether refilling them will be inflationary.

Gasoline prices have softened while analysts are pretty bearish on oil for 2024.

Contrarian view might be to look at oil to recover which would move CPI.

The Fed Dot Plots never wind up being correct.

Is Diehard a Christmas movie or not?

Mentioned in this Episode:

Zero-Day Options Shouldn’t Be Blamed for Selloff, Cboe Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/zero-day-options-catch-blame-for-selloff-cboe-says-not-so-fast?embedded-checkout=true

Everyone Betting on Rate Cuts | Blackrock Buying 44% of Homes? | Record Call Option Volume & VVIX and VIX Out of Synch? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/everyone-betting-on-rate-cuts-blackrock-buying-44-of/id1432836154?i=1000638850473

No, Wall Street investors haven’t bought 44% of homes this year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-wall-street-investors-haven-015642526.html

S&P 500 Targets | VIX Index Largest 7-Week declines | Simplifying Synthetic Long Stock with Covered Calls | Labor Force Participation https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s-p-500-targets-vix-index-largest-7-week-declines-simplifying/id1432836154?i=1000638193441

Dave Ramsey Wrong? | Huge VIX Options Bets | S&P 500 Seasonality | When Does Government Debt Become a Problem? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-ramsey-wrong-huge-vix-options-bets-s-p-500-seasonality/id1432836154?i=1000636559171

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek [e-mail]

www.zegafinancial.com