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Manage episode 327249362 series 1170092
Jason is back from a few speaking engagements at Clever Investor Live and Fund Launch Live. He also learned how to do live streaming well and will be applying this new knowledge in his upcoming LIVE events so stay tuned! But today Jason talks about headwinds and tailwinds in the current housing market.
And for today's guest, Jason welcomes Eric Basmajian, economic analyst and founder of EPB Macro Research. Jason and Eric discuss the rapid decline in real personal income and standard of living, how the rate shock will filter through to the housing market and much more. Eric also talks about the single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going and the four corners of an economy: income, consumption, employment and production.
How far do our dollars actually go and how do we measure the standard of living in real terms? Eric looks for inflection points in long term economic cycles, what he calls secular economic trends, and cyclical trends to better position people for what's on the other side. We now have a rate shock being pushed onto the private sector which will cause a lot of problems as it filters through to the housing sector. So if you have no new home sales, or no new construction, and you have no existing home sales, how is that going to impact employment in the construction sector? How is that going to impact hours worked or hourly earnings in the construction sector? And as higher costs are being pushed onto the private sector, whether it's construction, food or gas prices, we're seeing a rapid decline in real personal income.
Eric Basmajian is an economic analyst providing research on the most critical secular and cyclical economic trends impacting interest rates and asset prices.
Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/
Watch the video HERE.
1:51 Back from Las Vegas and Salt Lake City- a brief report
3:23 More predictions and how to think like da Vinci
4:42 Turning Point- but who cares? A non-binary approach to investing
6:51 Is the market signaling a RED light?
7:15 Raffle Giveaway Winners! John M. and Alexwkee to claim your prize go toJasonHartman.com/Ask.
Eric Basmajian Interview
17:37 Welcome Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research
18:29 The Fed and increasing rates - did they panic?
22:43 Are we in for a 30 year housing shortage?
25:53 Homes for sale and permits for new construction
28:09 Higher costs pushed onto the private sector
30:53 As private borrowing rates increase, result will be a huge pullback in spending
32:48 Savings rate has come down substantially
34:02 The Consumer Price Index is understated
36:02 Almost no first time buyer market anymore
38:36 Working age demographics around the world
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